Here’s a bold statement for you: ranking college basketball teams in the preseason is like trying to predict the weather a year in advance—it’s equal parts art, science, and sheer guesswork. But here’s where it gets controversial: my first-ever Associated Press Top 25 ballot is out, and I’m bracing for the inevitable backlash. After all, how can anyone confidently rank teams when there are so many unknowns? Transfers, injuries, breakout stars—it’s a recipe for chaos. Yet, here we are, diving headfirst into the madness.
Let’s start with the elephant in the room: we’re ranking teams based on today’s potential, not March’s outcomes. But with the transfer portal reshaping rosters and sleeper teams waiting to explode onto the scene, it’s anyone’s game. Will Florida defend their title? Can Houston finally finish the job? Is this Purdue’s year to make a Final Four run in Indianapolis? The truth is, nobody really knows. Last year, only three of the preseason Top 10 teams remained in the Top 10 by season’s end. Florida, the eventual champion, started at No. 21. And this is the part most people miss: the average ranking discrepancy for teams in both preseason and final polls was 7.5 spots. It’s humbling, to say the least.
For my inaugural poll, I leaned on a mix of consensus, gut instinct, and a heavy dose of data from Bart Torvik’s ratings—a system I deeply respect. I gave extra credit to teams with more returning players, but let’s be honest: any glaring mistakes? Those are all mine. Here’s how it shook out:
1. Houston: With three starters back from a team that nearly won it all, Houston is my top pick. Their returning core makes them a force from Day One, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them back in the Final Four.
2. Purdue: Another powerhouse with a deep returning roster and one of the game’s best coaches. If they’d made the Final Four last year, they’d likely be No. 1. The narrative of Purdue chasing a Final Four in their home state? That’s fuel for a season-long fire.
3. Florida: The reigning champs are a legitimate threat to repeat, thanks to Boogie Fland’s arrival and Princeton transfer Xavian Lee. Big man Alex Condon provides a vital link to last year’s success.
4. UConn: Three returning starters, Georgia transfer Silas Demary, and Danny Hurley’s renewed focus on defense? Yes, please.
5. Duke: Zero returning starters, but freshmen like Cameron Boozer and Dame Sarr have me convinced. Controversial take: Duke’s youth might be their greatest strength this season.
6. St. John’s: Rick Pitino’s lone returning starter, Zuby Ejiofor, is a stud. His portal additions are impressive, but the lack of a true point guard is a wildcard. Still, I’m betting on Pitino’s magic.
7. Michigan: Dusty May’s deep roster, led by transfer point guard Elliott Caeau, has me intrigued. Question for you: Is this team underrated at No. 7?
8. BYU: Kevin Young’s freshman phenom, AJ Dybantsa, could propel BYU to new heights. Bold prediction: They’ll outperform this ranking.
9. Kentucky: Mark Pope’s roster is as deep as they come, with Denzel Aberdeen and Jayden Quaintance poised to make waves. But here’s the debate: Can they live up to the Kentucky hype?
10. Louisville: Pat Kelsey’s Year 2 looks promising with sharpshooting transfers and freshman Mikel Brown. Controversial question: Are they ranked too low after last year’s injury-plagued season?
The rest of the list includes powerhouses like UCLA (No. 11), Texas Tech (No. 12), and Alabama (No. 13), each with their own storylines. But let’s not forget the sleepers: Creighton (No. 23) with high-scoring Nik Graves, and Michigan State (No. 24), where Tom Izzo’s duct tape approach might just work again. Final thought: North Carolina (No. 25) is a wildcard—will Caleb Wilson step up for Hubert Davis?
Now, I want to hear from you: Which team do you think is ranked too high? Too low? And who’s your dark horse pick for the Final Four? Let’s debate in the comments—I’m ready for the heat.
